Probabilistic Spatial Constraint Modeling for Sacred Site Reconstruction
This research developed a computational spatial workflow for evaluating the architectural siting logic of a proposed Third Temple reconstruction on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Rather than beginning with a predetermined placement or relying solely on inherited reconstruction traditions, the project translated textual, historical, archaeological, and architectural evidence into a testable geospatial framework. The goal was not to prove a final historical location, but to determine whether measurable spatial relationships on the existing platform produced a statistically meaningful convergence pattern when tested against uncertainty.
Restoring the Third Temple: A Spatial Architectural Study
Trever R. Bellew
QGIS, PyQGIS, Python, Revit, pyRevit, GeoPackage, Monte Carlo simulation, null-model testing
The computational process began in QGIS and PyQGIS, where site geometry, reference points, axial relationships, and comparative reconstruction overlays were consolidated into WGS 84 / UTM Zone 36N, EPSG:32636. This projected coordinate system allowed the study to work in meters and maintain consistency across distance calculations, line intersections, centroid testing, Monte Carlo perturbation, and sensitivity analysis.
The core spatial model was organized around an east-west axial framework anchored to the Eastern / Golden Gate condition. From this datum, the research tested relationships between the Temple Mount enclosure, the Golden Gate, the Dome of the Rock, the Dome of the Spirits, and derived north-south and east-west control lines. These relationships were treated as measurable constraints capable of being formalized and challenged computationally.
The workflow moved through data preparation and layer normalization, observed-model construction, Monte Carlo uncertainty modeling, null-orientation comparison, and leave-one-out sensitivity testing. Spatial layers were cleaned and consolidated into a controlled GeoPackage, observed axial and centroid relationships were built from measured geometry, and then controlled perturbation, randomized orientation tests, and constraint-removal studies tested whether the convergence zone remained stable under uncertainty.
A key methodological decision was the use of dual-environment validation. The primary spatial construction and exploratory testing were developed in QGIS/PyQGIS, but the prepared dataset was copied into a separate Python repository and retested independently. This reduced the risk that results were artifacts of an active GIS session, manual layer handling, or software-specific project conditions.
The computational output identified a tightly constrained candidate region of architectural consistency. The result was not interpreted as historical certainty, but as a statistically bounded spatial finding: a zone where multiple independent architectural constraints converged more tightly than randomized orientation models.
The final stage translated the computational results back into architectural design. Parametric cubit-based overlays, temple footprint studies, altar offsets, processional axes, and sacred hierarchy diagrams were generated from the tested spatial anchor, allowing the project to move from analysis into design without abandoning the evidence that produced the candidate zone.
Probabilistic Spatial Constraint Modeling makes interpretation visible, testable, and repeatable. By combining GIS, simulation, null-model comparison, sensitivity testing, and architectural reconstruction, the method lets design decisions emerge from quantified spatial evidence rather than narrative certainty.